[Adam Grant]: Two decades ago, I read a brilliant paper by Phil Tetlock, who introduced me to this idea of thinking like a preacher, a prosecutor or a politician. In the first chapter of the book, Grant outlines three common mindsets coined by political scientist Phil Tetlock: preacher, prosecutor, and politician. How Can We Know? Because of this they remain curious and flexible, always seeking the truth. We seek peak happiness (intensity), rather than small, steady positive happiness (frequency). Changing your mind is a sign of moral weakness. Blind adherence to these tools can result in poor outcomes: inflexible overconfidence, bad decision-making, avoidable errors, and failures to learn and grow. So too do different mental jobs. Part I: Individual Rethinking Study: Typically, researchers report new findings in scholarly journals and Tetlock (1998, 1999) has done so for of some part of the findings of his study. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). People as intuitive prosecutors: The impact of social control motives on attributions of responsibility. Political Psychology, 15, 509-530. We hesitate at the very idea of rethinking., When it comes to our own knowledge and opinions, we often favor. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: In his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Synopsis. 29). Opening story: 1959 Harvard study by Henry Murray (psychologist). Motivational interviewing: The best approach to changing someones mind is to help that person make the change on their own. This book fills that need. Who you are should be a question of what you value, not what you believe., Better judgment doesnt necessarily require hundreds or even dozens of updates. Present fewer reasons to support their case. We want to think of this idea when leading, when following, when making sales, when planning our marketing, and anywhere else we are dealing with the thoughts, opinions, and values of others. Opening story: Smokejumpers and the Mann Gulch fire (Montana) of 1949. Conflicts of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral Seduction and Strategic Issue Cycling. By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. This work suggests that there is an inverse relationship between fame and accuracy. Thinking like a politicianseeking to please otherscan lead us astray. Weak arguments dilute strong ones. The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. Tetlock has been interested in forecasting since the 1980s, he says during an interview at his home in Philadelphia. Psychological safety: The ability to take risks without fear of punishment or reprisal. We can embrace them when theyre within their domains. How politicized is political psychology and is there anything we should do about it? In 2015, Tetlock and Dan Gardners collaborative book on prediction examines why, while most peoples predictions are only slightly better than chance, certain people seem to possess some level of actual foresight. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology. Desirability bias: The tendency to act in a manner that enhances your acceptance or approval from others. Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable. jack the ripper documentary channel 5 / ravelry crochet leg warmers / philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician. The Dunning-Kruger effect: Identifies the disconnect between competence and confidence. Quick-To-Read Conversation Starters For The Stubbornly Ambitious. Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. the degree to which simple training exercises improved the accuracy of probabilistic judgments as measured by Brier scores; the degree to which the best forecasters could learn to distinguish many degrees of uncertainty along the zero to 1.0 probability scale (many more distinctions than the traditional 7-point verbal scale used by the National Intelligence Council); the consistency of the performance of the elite forecasters (superforecasters) across time and categories of questions; the power of a log-odds extremizing aggregation algorithm to out-perform competitors; the apparent ability of GJP to generate probability estimates that were "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information. Political Psychology, 15, 567-577. We often take on this persona . And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. Binary thinking results in fewer opportunities for finding common ground. He has served on the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley (19791995, assistant professor), the Ohio State University (the Burtt Endowed Chair in Psychology and Political Science, 19962001) and again at the University of California Berkeley (the Mitchell Endowed Chair at the Haas School of Business, 20022010). The first part considers rethinking at the individual level. Her research focuses on decision-making, specifically, the variables that influence the decisions we make that are often excluded from rational models of decision-making, such as emotions and the effects of context.15He has also collaborated with Dan Gardner, who works at the University of Ottawas Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs.16In addition to lecturing on risk, forecasting, and decision-making, Gardner offers consulting services to enable people to become better decision-makers, with one of his clients being none other than the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.17Gardner has also worked as a journalist and author18and he pennedSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Predictionalong with Tetlock. Strong opinions like stereotypes and prejudice are less likely to be reconsidered. During a spacewalk, Luca felt water in his helmet. The Superforecasting book focused on shorter-range forecasts, the longest of which, about 12 months, being only as long as the shortest forecasts in the Expert Political Judgment project. Political psychology or politicized psychology: Is the road to scientific hell paved with good moral intentions? Tetlock, P.E. Tetlock and Gardner (2015) also suggest that the public accountability of participants in the later IARPA tournament boosted performance. Search for truth through testing hypotheses, running experiments, and uncovering new truths. When our 'sacred' beliefs are in jeopardy, we 'deliver sermons' to protect and promote our ideals. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). Professionally, its all about setting the table and/or recognizing the table thats been set. Philip Tetlock is currently the Annenberge University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. Chapter 5: Dances with Foes. Politician: It's no shock that "when we're in politician mode, we're trying to win the. He's soft-spoken, gestures frequently with his hands, and often talks in . Tetlock, P.E., & Mitchell, G. (2009). Task conflict can be beneficial and generate better outcomes. The authors stress that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods. The author continuously refutes this idea. We dont have to stay tethered to old images of where we want to go or who we want to be. **Chapter 1: A Preacher, a Prosecutor, a Politician, and a Scientist ** Michelle Obama on asking a child what they want to be when they grow up: Its one of the most useless questions an adult can ask a child. We can strategize from there and know which mode, preacher, prosecutor, or politician, to operate from and to. The rate of the development of science is not the rate at which you make observations alone but, much more important, the rate at which you create new things to test., Tetlock and his team have reached the conclusion that, while not everyone has the ability to become a superforecaster, we are all capable of improving our judgment.6While the research of the Good Judgment Project has come to a close, the Good Judgment initiative continues to offer consulting services and workshops to companies worldwide. Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., &Lerner, J. Fuzzy thinking can never be proven wrong. How Can We Know? Sign up for the free Mental Pivot Newsletter. As social beings, we are motivated to seek belonging and status. Tetlock, P. E., Visser, P., Singh, R., Polifroni, M., Elson, B., Mazzocco, P., &Rescober, P. (2007). Great listeners are more interested in making their audiences feel smart., Part III: Collective Rethinking It was psychologist Philip Tetlock who demonstrated that, generally, the accuracy of our predictions is no better than chance, which means that flipping a coin is just as good as our best guess. He is author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Different physical jobs call for Tetlock: The current project is supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency of the US government -- and it is the most systematic effort, to date, at testing the effectiveness. One finding: framing issues as binary (i.e. Why do you think its correct? One of the subjects was Ted Kaczynski (The Unabomber); he had one of the strongest negative responses to the study. flexible thinking. The person most likely to persuade you to change your mind is you. The concept of superforecasters was developed by The Good Judgment Project and is arguably their best-known discovery. "Hedgehogs" performed less well, especially on long-term forecasts within the domain of their expertise. Tetlock also realized that certain people are able to make predictions far more accurately than the general population. And if you absolutely mustand you better have a good reasondisobey them., The Government-funded research of the Good Judgment Project has manifested into a public platform called Good Judgment Open, where they recruit talented people to be trained to become a superforecaster.13They also have a global network of superforecasters who offer analytic services. ", This page was last edited on 18 February 2023, at 16:04. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. Phil Tetlocks (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. Apparently, "even the most opinionated hedgehogs become more circumspect"[9] when they feel their accuracy will soon be compared to that of ideological rivals. American Psychologist. Wilbur Wright: Honest argument is merely a process of mutually picking the beams and motes out of each others eyes so both can see clearly.. They argue that tournaments are ways of signaling that an organization is committed to playing a pure accuracy game and generating probability estimates that are as accurate as possible (and not tilting estimates to avoid the most recent "mistake"). Group identification helps us achieve these goals. Different physical jobs call for different tools. Good Judgment, Inc. 2014 - Present9 years. Lebow &G. Parker (eds) Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History. Their heated relationship came to a head in what became known as the "war of the currents Do preach to the people that already believe in your mission. Changing your mind is a sign of moral weakness. The second part explores how to encourage and influence other individuals to engage in rethinking. Ted's Bio; Fact Sheet; Hoja Informativa Del Ted Fund; Ted Fund Board 2021-22; 2021 Ted Fund Donors; Ted Fund Donors Over the Years. . Rethinking is fundamental to scientific thinking. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know by Adam Grant (2021) is a new addition to the growing body of mainstream books about mental blindspots, cognitive biases, and thinking errors. Reply to symposium on Expert political judgment: How good is it? Implicit bias and accountability systems: What must organizations do to prevent discrimination? Do recognize the ideas and the roles being applied and operate within them. [20][21][22][23] Real-world implications of this claim are explored largely in business-school journals such as the Journal of Consumer Research, California Management Review, and Journal of Consumer Psychology. Scientist: Grant appends this professional worldview to Tetlocks mindset models.